Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.659809 3.641072 5.037172 7.239629 1.076758e+01 1.646885e+01 27.008325
2025-02-16 1.774341 2.803090 4.576879 8.116521 1.575671e+01 3.378449e+01 89.859165
2025-02-23 1.179142 2.068045 3.841483 8.134273 2.028225e+01 6.276657e+01 320.920424
2025-03-02 0.798083 1.515806 3.122046 7.694874 2.429619e+01 1.123677e+02 1481.567889
2025-03-09 0.616471 1.270410 2.922622 8.566754 3.645853e+01 3.104011e+02 44456.390977
2025-03-16 0.482471 1.065488 2.703214 9.332555 5.445391e+01 1.054813e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.393470 0.927346 2.588969 10.598127 8.959437e+01 6.718806e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.323832 0.807346 2.455620 11.822173 1.494740e+02 1.404606e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.255577 0.660283 2.123632 11.424182 1.968943e+02 2.547700e+07 NaN
2025-04-13 0.201829 0.535090 1.793587 10.505469 2.348352e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.172425 0.474964 1.694473 11.340889 3.997257e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.153896 0.442973 1.700889 13.433694 9.245504e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.138390 0.417596 1.739223 16.687860 3.121488e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.120569 0.376041 1.660324 18.473248 9.443504e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.101922 0.323809 1.477987 17.949358 1.951058e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.085482 0.274536 1.277961 16.365263 3.059379e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.076550 0.252660 1.236752 18.215472 2.400119e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.068540 0.231593 1.184494 19.818713 7.937038e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.062537 0.216947 1.166583 22.726440 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.057053 0.202539 1.138858 25.573669 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.050295 0.179966 1.027700 24.277474 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.044046 0.158003 0.906735 21.772521 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.040518 0.147884 0.878207 23.673327 NaN NaN NaN